บทวิเคราะห์ค่าเงิน EUR

เป็นบทวิเคราะห์ ค่าเงิน EUR จากเว็บต่างประเทศนะครับ ลองแปลดูครับ

The Greek CDS meeting is well into Hour #4 and there is indication on when the announcement on the ISDA website will come.

The knee jerk reaction to triggering CDS will be euro selling and some risk aversion. It’s an open question about how braced the market is for such an outcome. CitiFX out earlier saying it’s only 50% priced in but I would put it at 90% so the reaction will probably be minimal, after the knee jerk. At most, this might knock some initial stops down to 1.3060/50 before the buyers bid it back up.

The market will then look for any secondary signs of forced selling i.e. a bank that’s not prepared for this outcome. This is an extremely low probability event, banks and funds should be prepared for this.

If CDS are not triggered there should be a small pop in the euro, but the secondary reaction will depend on the statement. ISDA could rule that it does not yet have enough info, reserve judgment until later or simply delay the verdict. If so, the initial move will quickly backtrack.

If CDS are not triggered and ISDA reports that the case is closed, the knee jerk will be higher euro but I suspect it won’t last long (less than a minute). Such a ruling would massively undermine the CDS market. Expect CDS on Portugal to fall dramatically because the process would lose legitimacy. At the same time, Portuguese (and other periphery) bond yields would rise because they would now be uninsurable. There would be a lot of kicking a screaming and many unintended consequences, which generally means yen buying.